Gas Prices Have Little Effect On Compact-Car Sales

Compacts will soon catch midsize cars in popularity in the U.S. as in Western Europe -- or so the theory goes. If you measure all C-segment models, including such crossovers as the Ford Escape and Honda CR-V, compacts already are there. Ford says the average new vehicle buyer now cross-shops C-segment crossovers with C/D-segment sedans. With heavy incentives, its aged, soon-to-be-replaced Escape had its best year ever in 2011, passing the Honda Accord, Civic, and CR-V; Toyota Corolla; Ford Fusion; Ram pickup; Hyundai Sonata; and Chevy Malibu for fifth-place overall in sales.

As a specific automotive segment, midsize cars still rule, led again by the Toyota Camry. Even though the March 2011 Japanese earthquake/tsunami and Thai floods constrained U.S. Camry production, the midsize Toyota remains the best-selling car here and third overall behind two trucks.

The Ford F-Series continues to lead overall sales, now for 30 years straight, with 584,917 delivered in calendar '11. The Chevrolet Silverado was second, at 415,130. To measure the correlation between gas prices and C-car versus C/D-car sales, Motor Trend added up the five monthly bestsellers in each category to chart against average national gas and diesel prices. U.S. auto sales rose by 10.3 percent in 2011 over 2010, totaling 12.8 million cars and trucks. Depending on the month, the five best-selling midsize cars were among seven models: Camry, Altima, Fusion, Accord, Sonata, Malibu, and in December, the Toyota Prius. The top five best-selling compacts were among six models: Corolla, Cruze, Civic, Elantra, Jetta, and Focus.

Will midsize cars continue to dominate? That would be the way to bet, though compacts like Jetta and Cruze are breakouts. Dodge's new compact Dart launches later this year. The '13 Malibu Eco will be joined by a new full Malibu line this fall, when Fusion, Accord, Altima, and Mazda6 will be replaced. All Japanese brands are returning to normal inventory levels, and the compact car versus midsize car versus compact crossover versus fuel price competition will play out in its purest form in 2012.

SOURCES: U.S. Energy Information Administration for gas and diesel prices; the automakers and for February, May, and December sales numbers, Automotive News.